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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Deep closers don't typically win up the rail....they have to split horses and circle around horses. The 2nd race winner stalked in 3rd, and sneaked up the rail to win by 2 lengths and 9/5 odds in race #2.
Two of the nine races were won by horses who came from off-the-pace, and won up the rail. Another two races were won by horses who went wire-to-wire...I'm going to assume you'll say those two horses weren't on the rail? They both had inside position, and the horses who tried coming around them got beaten off.
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The horses that day who went to wire to wire tended to stay off the rail, espically in the stretch and stay in the 3rd or 2nd path.
In race #2, the horse did not sneak up the rail, he was much the best the winner early on in the race. He also got off the rail a bit and seemed to be in the 2 path all through the stretch.
Watch the horses that didn't win the race, that finished 3rd or worse. The ones on the rail lost ground, the ones trying to close on the rail couldn't make up any ground, while the ones towards the center of the track were able too. Just forget about the winners and watch that.