I take speed figures very seriously, in dirt races run at commonly run distances anyway, and there are a lot of times when I'm not betting the horse with the top figures.
If you look at the Derby, Curlin was the horse with the top last-out figure, and Beyer wrote a piece about him (that I was no fan of) knocking his chances...saying he'd finish in the second half of the field.
Knowing how fast a horse is capable of running is very important, but, the way the figure was earned is more important than all else.
And, there are going to be times when a horse is dominant on figures, and all of his dominant figures are numbers he earned with no candy trips, or smoke and mirrors....and I still will play against the horse because I project the way the race will be run figures to work against said horse.
I think it's a big misconception that people who take figures seriously use them as the main basis for all handicapping opinions.
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