[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

OK, as I do every year, here are the Derby angles which I consider and use as PART of handicapping the Derby...they are not RULES they are angles...consider if you like but they don't take the place of handicapping! I will go against them if I really like a horse (example being Barbaro last year). These involve win betting only:
1) Don't bet a gelding (Funny Cide did win in 2003, prior to that Clyde Van Dusen in 1929)
2) Winner must race in April (this is often written as within 5 weeks...Barbaro won the Fla Derby on 4/1 last year...outside 5 weeks but in April, Fla Derby run 3/31 this year...your call)
3) Must have at least 3 preps at three (last was Sunny's Halo in 1983, prior to that was Jet Pilot in 1947)
4) Must have 5 or more lifetime starts (Last was Exterminator in 1918)
5) Must have at least one 3yo prep of 8f or longer (last was Middleground in 1950)
6) No foreign-based horse (last was Canonero II in 1971)
7) No late Nominee (never won)
8) Must have at least one race at two (last was Apollo in 1882)
9) Must not have "RAN CURSE" (Barbaro was first to win)
10) No BCJ Winner (none have won)
11) Must have a stake win prior to Derby (Giacomo broke this in 2005, previous was Canonero II in 1971 but he did win one in Ven)
12) At least 16 pts in DP...prefer 18+ (documented earlier)
13) No more than 2 zeros in DP (no winners)
14) Must finish in top 4 in last prep...some prefer top 3
15) No horse with a million or more in earnings prior to Derby has won (seems to get weaker every year with more preps with large purses but still holds).
16) No horse with Damascus in sire's sire line has won (Curse of Damascus)...not usually many entries and I see no basis for this one, use at your own risk (none this year)
17) No prep race of 10f or longer (no winners). Again, until recently there weren't many...Dubai may run one now? Seldom comes into play.

Bringing to front page one last time...just for info purposes!