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Originally Posted by alphanumeric1
I am interested in the pace factor in 'cappin the Derby. Steve Roman (chef-de-race.com) has his pace parameters for leading Derby contenders in 2007 prep races at a mile or more on dirt.
The explanation from his web site is: PFs are based on an integration of final time and fractional time. In other words, PFs incorporate a significant pace factor while Beyer SFs do not.
CIRCULAR QUAY
STREET SENSE
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
DOMINICAN
ZANJERO
Since 1998, the Derby winner has been among the top 5, seven times, among PF contenders.
Does anyone think this holds any water?
By the way, this is my first post at DT. I have been lurking but I think it's a great place to hang out.
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I started another thread last night with basically the same info, noting that 8-9 winners had a PF of -54 or better. I like Dr Roman's figures and consider them better than Beyers (personal choice)...obviously the sample size is too small yet to draw firm conclusions but if his figures are a more accurate representation of a horse's race than Beyers then it is something to consider. One thing about this year's PF's, they expose Curlin as his Ark Derby PF was much less than Beyer awarded...we'll see how that pans out as well.