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Originally Posted by somerfrost
There is a causal relationship between not racing at two and having an adequate foundation to race 10 furlongs the first Sat in May against a field of 15-20 horses. Since Showup and Curlin are different horses, the effect will be different...I can't say that because Showup didn't win, neither will Curlin...all I am saying is that they share the same circumstance (no race at two) and I cite data regarding the results of Derby horses with no race at two. I can see from the data (43 horses since 1956, probably over 100 easily since 1882) that 0% of horses with no races at two have won the Derby while approximately 6-7% of all horses running in the Derby have won...what one makes of that is up to the individual, it is simply data!
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In a way man, I feel for you. I know you are just providing people with info and letting them figure out what to do with it.
I guess the problem is.....I don't think they should do a damn thing with any of it. If Curlin had run a 5f race last September, and then sat on the shelf for months (for whatever reason) before making his 3yo debut, he would be off the list, but would he actually have a more solid foundation?