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Originally Posted by somerfrost
If they aren't tools what would you like me to call them? Past Performances can be criticized the same way...what Curlin did in the Ark Derby doesn't necessarily translate into how he will run Saturday but most handicappers ( myself included) study PP's...why? Because they are useful tools along with others. A tool isn't good or bad, it's how you use them. There are dozens of angles I don't list cause I fail to see any causal relationship in them...the ones I do list I can defend (except for Damascus one and I state that). Call me stupid but I think a lot of folks who are thinking about betting Curlin to win might want to know that no horse without a race at two has won the Derby since 1882 and with less than 5 LT starts has won since 1918...of course Curlin may win but betting him should be a decision based on all available info not just that which you favor.
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Let me ask you, what is the causal relationship between Showup losing to Barbaro, et al, last year, and Curlins chances against this group on Saturday.