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Originally Posted by PSH
Dont you think that since it has been about one year since that work that it becomes less relevant than a 2YO who works in the sale in the spring and starts by the end of their 2YO year????
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Yes, I would agree that it is somewhat less relevant. A lot can happen in a year. In the case of this horse, this horse looks like she is probably lame. she is not the same horse that she used to be.
When you watch a work at a sale, it gives you a half-way decent idea of what a horse's ability. But if the horse doesn't stay sound, they may not be able to show their ability when they actually run.
But I still think it is good information to have. A lot of these horses go off at big odds, so you don't need to be right that often. This filly went off at 11-1. I bet on one at Churchill yesterday that ran lousy at 21-1. With thes types of horses, if I am right just 10% of the time, I will make money.