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Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Dunbar -
if you can...after the post position draw, can you give your morning line for the "Run for the Roses"?
You're much better with the math than me.
Thanks...
--- "HHH"
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HHH, if you are looking for a guide to how the betting will go on Derby Day, then I think the list of futures is a reasonable estimate of the bettors' sentiments. The numbers seem to have stabilized the past 2 days.
A "morning line" should probably reflect the odds you get with a 16% takeout. The odds in the futures list are only reflecting a 4.5% takeout, so a few of the odds will go off at less than what's showing. I'm guessing Curlin will go off at around 7-2, and Street Sense will go off around 9-2. That would get the apparent takeout up to 11%. Your guess is as good as mine where the remaining 5% difference will come from. (and I could be way off wrt Curlin and Street Sense, for that matter.)
I can post my own line, but I am not brimming with confidence this year! The combination of horses running fewer preps and running some of those fewer preps on synthetic tracks has introduced even more uncertainty than usual. For me, at least.
--Dunbar