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Originally Posted by easy goer
I dont see it. do you have any other examples of horses and times that work like this? People say it all the time, I have not seen any evidence to back it up.
The other thing is it's hard to say how much help a jock adds to a horse. Sure a Jerry Bailey may occasionally pull out a win or hit the board when it was unlikely, but they cant account for a huge amount. Now take the trainer, that is another level back, how can he be fine tuning the horses speed if even the jock has little control?
Well it seems to me you've just contradicted your whole theory. If AGS is the second best horse, and AGS best finish was in the TB derby, then you are looking at the two best finishes of the season.
But then you say he's not fully cranked? So SS runs one of the best finishes of the season but he's not fully cranked? This makes no sense to me. I think you are looking at the best of SS in his last 3 races..
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I think it is a large part of the reason that horses often improve in their second and third starts off a layoff. Usually they come back one to two races before their main goal so aren't fully cranked until the second or third race back. Then you have a horse like Invasor who is trained to peak on BC Day come back off the layoff and fire without a problem because that race was the big goal.
The fact that he was able to beat the horse I think is the second best in the Derby field in a race he wasn't fully cranked up for tells me he may tower above this field. I don't see how I contradicted anything there.