Cobalt Blue, in his most recent race, faced all the things Hard Spun faced in the Southwest Stakes---and he was beaten over 20 lengths at something like even money.
It's very rare you see a horse against the pace, and against a strong bias, not run a career worst race on paper.
Of course I agree that the Southwest field was weak.
I think our disagreement on this topic stems from two things. I think our trip handicapping ideology is different, and the way we interpret pace is different.
To me, trips like Hard Spun had in the Southwest, are just about as bad as trips can possibly get. Even though they appear to be very good trips when all the circumstances aren't factored in.
If I watched the Southwest, without doing any work, or looking at the forms of any horses that day---I'd say something like "Wow! Hard Spun is a massive fraud!" after watching that race.
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