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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
His one lifetime win came over an EXTREMELY speed biased track at Santa Anita, in his career debut. He took advantage of the bias that day.
He sat a good trip in the SA Derby, and had no excuse for not hitting the board as the tepid favorite in what was a low-rated running of that race.
It's hard to talk people off of extreme longshots---but, even in a year like this, when the crop is unarguably weak and no one stands out---I'd be shocked if Liquidity won the race.
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Just to play "Devil's Advocate" - didn't Street Sense win the BCJ on a speed biased rail at Churchill Downs last Fall? Is it possible that the rail could be similar in two weeks and if Liquidity gets an inside post he could ride the rail to a win?
Do I think this will happen - probably not, but I'm currently thinking there really aren't a lot you can throw out if you're playing exotics in the Derby - until we see the post draw and the horses works/demeanor leading up to Cinco De Mayo, I'm still trying to figure out how this race may play out...
On the other hand, I agree that O'Neill does not ship them "ready"... but I said that about Jerry Hollendorfer until Tricky Trevor
