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Originally Posted by Java Gold
Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.
You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.
If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.
Java OUT
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I think the derby angles are a nice tool to consider for the Derby.. including the three preps angle.. but, to me, Barbaro broke more than the RAN curse last year.. His first prep of the year was the Tropical Derby on JANUARY 1st.. then the Holy Bull on February 4th.. then the Florida Derby on April 1st... so from January 2nd to KY Derby day, he had TWO preps.. (13 weeks leading up to the race.) --yes, I know technically he ran 3x in 2006 before the derby(but would you have tossed him had the Tropical Derby been Dec. 31st, instead of jan 1??)
As far as 'hitting a brick wall' in the final 8th, Barbaro could have easily faced that some concern as you are putting on SS and CQ... IMO.
So, I agree getting 3 preps is a big positive for a contender, but not essential under the right circumstances.
though, again, I think the angles are a useful tool in general.