I would prefer Battaglia not make Quay the third choice. I think that the public has a lot of doubts in him with the layoff. Nobiz is a popular horse coming off a win in the Wood.
Not 100% sure that the public would back Nobiz over Quay, but you would think he has a chance.
It becomes a question of what the ML Odds are meant to do - should they reflect the public's likely natural opinion at post time?
OR
- are they supposed to be an accurate estimate of actual win probability?
As a handicapper I would prefer that the morning line reflect the public, rather than be overly accurate. If possible err or exagerate on the side of public opinion!
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