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Originally Posted by miraja2
I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.
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Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.