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Originally Posted by MarkyD
Dunbar need your opinion.
I will be using my pinni account for futures.
I have been following the lines sice last week. I noticed they just jumped a little after 6pm today.
I will be using 700$.
I am trying to figure out if I will get better value at post time.
100$, is going on Stormello at 75-1. I believe his odds will be down come post time.
What do you think about Hard Spun currently +1446. He came out last week on pinni at around +1110. Do you think I should keep waiting or he will not get any higher then +1446?
My other bet will be Great Hunter currently +2276. I think he was around +1300 last Sunday. Great hunter 23-1. I have to attack those odds.
If you had to bet the two. HS and GH how would you spend your 600$ on them?
Thanks man.
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Marky, I haven't made even a rough line yet for the Derby. I don't have a strong opinion on any of the 3 horses you mentioned. Until I make a line, I can only talk comfortably about whether Pinnacle's odds appear in line with others. Others here can give you stronger (and probably better) opinions on whether any of the 3 horses have value at the odds you are looking at.
I was going to point out that Stormello at 75-1 is so far above TheGreek's 45-1 that it looks out-of-line and probably worth a bet. But now I see that TheGreek's odds on Stormello have risen to 52.5-1. That's still pretty far below 75-1, but it's an indication that there has so far been no interest in betting on Stormello. Still, I think 75-1 is going to look generous compared to his odds on raceday.
Hard Spun is +1415 at TheGreek. That's so close to the Pinnacle line (+1446) that I don't think you'd do much worse waiting until the Derby to bet it.
Great Hunter at 22.76-1 is substantially better than TheGreek's 18-1. Also, WorldSportsExchange dropped from 20-1 to 15-1 (which doesn't mean much since they are seldom competitive).
It will be easier to judge these when EhorseX gets active again. (The principal line maker there seems to have pulled his/her bets this morning.)
Whatever odds you are looking at, don't forget to discount it a little for the chance the horse doesn't make it to the starting gate. I'm using a discount of 10% for the next several days. (I'm thinking that on average, 2 of the 20-22 horses are going to drop out in the next 2 weeks because of fever, injury, etc.) So, Great Hunter at 22.76-1 today is like getting about 20-1 on Derby Day. By next week the discount I use will drop to 5%.
--Dunbar