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Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Without this former advantage, forward-placed horses now have their masks taken off, and must actually be able to run all-out for the required distance.... So I'm here to say that Polytrack, as frustrating as it may seem to get a grip on given the years of past peformance lines looking us all in the face, actually puts the best horse in the winner's circle[/i]
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I agree with the above portion. My impression is that horses that are ready to run their race do. There are no free rides. The horse has to earn the win. The horses seem to need, not only a turn of foot, but muscular strength and fitness. More depth of conditioning. I think the surface is forgiving of some bone and tendon weaknesses and minor sorenesses, but demanding of cardiovascular and muscular systems. Any given horse can still run - and win - with the style they are comfortable with.
As an aside, perhaps poly is exposing trainers who are more adept at reading a condition book and sizing up the opposition than others may be, too.
I've always looked closely at horses in the paddock, how they move in warmup, what they've been doing the past week leading up to a big race, how they come back and walk off. Since poly I love handicapping Keeneland, perhaps simply because now the racing is more suitable to my handicapping style.
Many are disappointed in the way the Bluegrass unfolded. For me, the splits hardly matter at all. The most important thing I want to know about that race is: how did those horses come out of it, and what did they get out of it? If those horses were tired the next day or two, but not sore, look out and stand back next time they run.
Trainers w/experience on poly can please comment on my impressions the effect of conditioning on this surface has on their horses. I would very much like to hear their thoughts.
The one thing I've not done, that I would love to do, is ride a horse over that surface, to see what it feels like.