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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
While I agree with a lot of what you said I think you are making a mistake in the latter part of your post, or perhaps I am misreading you, as suppose you like that 15-1 shot ( and I understand what you mean when you say maybe you were " wrong " ) but also think the favorite is deserving. Isn't that a situation where at the very least you should have an exacta with your horse under the favorite ( and perhaps a small reverse )?
As an add-on, not relevant to what you posted necessarily, I think people need to pay more attention to how much exactas pay when a strong favorite runs second. To me these are far and away the best value payoffs available. I can't tell you how many 3-1 shots I have seen beat odds on favorites with the exacta paying more than double the win price. If a horse is considered over 50% to win the race just imagine what it's chances are of finishing second....especially when the second or third choice wins the race. It's worth noting.
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I guess it's nuanced, as most handicapping theories are. The shorter the deserved favorite, the less likely you are going to get any value elsewhere, win-wise or in the verticals. I suppose the Exacta play you mentioned is viable, but only if you're getting the right prices there. Usually it's not there, at least to the extent that you're beating the t/o. And some of it depends on personal style and preference. For me, unless the Ex pool is real favorable, I'd rather pass on races like this and look for a better (or maybe just different) single race opp.