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Old 04-19-2007, 08:58 AM
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SentToStud SentToStud is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by docicu3
I have wandered in here on page 18 so I probably have missed far more than I will be able to use successfully but if I take this one step further......

Andy if you have an angle on a LS say at better than 10-1 and you really like a horse to win which you play with your typical "X" or unit play. Does not the concept of "saver bet" at times on long odds with horses you have already played to win make sense. Although I want the 33-1 payoff 27/$2 and 14/$2 are not returns that will likely make you a loser for the day.
I thought the most important thing at the end of the day,other than making some kind of profit was to be able to look back at all of your wagers and objectively evaluate risk and return favorably. You can certainly on occasion win by playing stupidly, albeit not very often, but making sound wagers should eventually give you a decent chance long term to be a winner over all.

An example is a 33-1 shot that paid 68-27-14 allow you to still make quite a profit if the horse finished 2nd or 3rd.

I certainly agree that playing short odds will likely make betters go broke but there has to be a time when investing in returns that can be worth the risk at certain potential ROI is a sound play.

DrD
DrD,
I disagree fairly strongly. I think the ONLY time a place or show wager can make any sense is when you are betting against a huge minus pool chalk you think is vulnerable to running out of the pool. But that's not what we're talking here.

I'm certain if you took a look at every 30-1 shot that ran first or second over a large enough sample, you will find a higher ROI betting those horses just to win as opposed to splitting your wager WP or WPS.

If you like a horse at long odds, it's fair to assume you find percieved value because you feel the favorite is underlaid. In other words, a horse you feel is fair at 10-1 that is going off at 20-1 is doing so most likely because a favorite is going off at 4/5 instead of 5/2.

In my mind, the only way to play this horse is to win and in vertical exotics with the non-overlaid chalk contenders. Favored horses (deserving chalk and otherwise) are overbet in Place/Show pools and are increasingly overbet in vertical exotics.

I think if a horse is 4/5 and is deserving, it's fruitless to try to beat the race betting any horse to win or playing vertically. "Deserving" is, of course, subjective but if 40-50% of the pool is correct, you are just not going to find value elsewhere. In other words, if I see a horse at 15-1 that I thought was fair at 10-1 in a race with a short favorite worthy of its odds level, I'm going to pass because it's very likely that I'm wrong in my opinion of the longshot's fair odds and there's no way to beat the place or exacta pool.

I think WP or WPS wagering is a bit of a psychological phenomenon people use to cash tickets and, to an extent, preserve bankroll on a short term basis.

So I think the only time to bet a horse at what I percieve is an overlay price is when there is a false favorite simply because there is no other way over the long run that makes my horse an attractive overlay. And given that the bad chalk is increasingly overbet in the vertical pools, I think it's mandatory to use my horse in verticals with the other non-chalk contenders. These are the kind of races and betting opps we live for and you have to get your money in the the right way when you can.

Sorry to ramble. Thats my opinion.
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