Thanks for the compliment, Scav.
Do you mean a "morning line" that predicts what the bettors will do, or a "fair odds line" that represent my own estimate of each horse's chance to win?
If you mean a morning line for how the bettors will bet, then I don't think you can do much better than using the closing odds from Future Pool 3, after adjusting a bit for the post-Ark Derby Curlin euphoria. Push Curlin up from 7-2 to maybe 9-2, and make up the difference by lowering the odds on Nobiz and Dominican a bit.
If you mean a fair odds line, I'll get right to work on it! ;<)
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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