I'm wishing it was only 90%.
I read the speed figure threads and it's unbelieveable people spend so much time dissecting them, criticizing them, etc...
In the end, any speed figure is only one subjective measure. Someone else's speed figure is interesting and perhaps somewhat useful but the way people obsess over this stuff is insane.
You're far better off spending your time watching the races and forming your own ideas about who ran well/poor in spite of/because of/irregardless of how the races were run and how YOU think they'll move forward.
Nobody is going to win money unless they work at it and use their own creativity. If all you can come up with for a race that's three weeks away with no drawn field is criticism of a published speed figure, how the hell are you going to play a Wednesday card anywhere?
I think there's different ways to do good at this but the 3 or 4 decent or better horseplayers I know give very nominal consideration to someone else's figs (and only slightly more to their own) and spend most of their time on how races were and will be run and putting tickets together.
My own two cents on the Derby is that it's fruitless to bet to win on anything short and betting a longshot to win is only a stab. I will spend whatever time I invest looking to do two things; 1. Form negative opinions on two or more of the "name" horses to the extent that I can leave them off a tri or super ticket. Right now, NoBiz from an unfavorabe post is perhaps one. 2. I'll spend most of my time following the 'bottom' 2/3 of the field and hopefully come up with two or three that I believe have a better than conventionally thought chance of crashing the ticket at 25-1 to 50-1 (or whatever).
That's just my thoughts on how I'll spend my time on the race. For what it's worth, I won't spend very much time looking at Speed Figs and none on why they are right or wrong.
good luck.
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