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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.
Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.
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My post suggests no such thing, my post suggests that he's tactical enough to be where he needs to be, that's my point. You may have your fan club on here, but do not talk down to me. I think I made good points and stated them clearly, but you only want to interject your opinion of what I may be thinking. I don't know how someone can be so bold to throw out so many of this years contenders, they are all so closely grouped that I would listen to almost anyone's opinion on the Derby this year. Also, I don't know how you can say that he's so slow that he's only 5 points off the top Beyer for this year, that's not a huge disparity. He may very well lose the Derby and so will 19 other horses, but to say he won't win again is beyond me. Also, look at how slow some of the fractions have been this year. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could be out there loose with an easy lead.