as a general prop. probably the gutsy win. Because usually the gutsy win comes at the expense of another good horse and the easy win comes at the expense of chumps and tends to be overrated.

But it's hard to use generalities when you have to bet on an individual horse. If you were to read about these races 100 years from now you, and didnt know the outcome of the derby, you'd probably think Curlin was some flash in the pan who had ran against nobodies. And the best horses had run in FL.

Every time you apply generalities to a horse race you risk being undone by a horse that seems to defy it. Barbaro gunning from the 10 hole at GP. No one had won from that hole at two turns at the new park.

There's really no way to know for sure. Otherwise I guess the parimutual system would have gone broke years ago.