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Originally Posted by easy goer
But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.
perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?
I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.
How do you view the issue?
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I think you make a fair point. But, Bernardini lost his first race, so he faced adversity, had some dirt kicked in his face, and felt the heat of a race. Curlin still hasn't done that.
I think my views on "pressure" in this case are somewhat irrelevant. "Pressure" on Derby Day is totally different than any other pressure in any other race. 20 horses, 160,000 people, the stampede to the first turn, the long home stretch. There is too much to overcome, in most cases. You need alot of things to break your way, and that includes having a horse that has faced adversity, can adapt and adjust and find a way. Curlin just hasn't seen that yet and if he faces it on Derby Day, without seeing it before, he is far less likely to be in a position to react in a positive manner as opposed to those who have. Does it totally rule him out? Of course not, but for me, he's a horse to round out the exotics with. I wasn't sold on Barbaro last year until I went back and watched the Florida Derby again a few times. He dug deep and toughed out a really gutty win from his post on that track. Real gutsy. So, come Derby Day, yeah there was traffic, yeah there was speed, but he was in a familiar position.
Again, especially at the price. He closed at 7-2 on the third installment of the future wager. 7-2!!!