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Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers
Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.
I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.
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Okay, I can buy all that, legitmate concerns.
Competition, yeah it wasn't the best. But what I will say is that he handled Tueflesberg who has beaten Hard Spun and who also ran competively in the Blue Grass. And regardless of the competition, in each of his races there was never any doubt about who the best horse was, he has simply crushed each field. And not like Bernardini did in my view. Curlin has shown that he can come from off the pace, race wide, etc. I think he has been tested and has shown that he is superior. The other contenders, the ones that have supposedly been tested all have question marks of their own imo.
I also like the tempo that he maintains. He doesn't need the lead, he won't be on the lead, but he isn't a real closer. I don't know, maybe he's a presser?
What I'm saying is that his pace is dispersed more evenly throughout the race which is beneficial for long distances. A contrast would be Circular Quay who runs slow, then kicks in. I don't like that style for 10 panels. Others like AGS don't look like they can sustain a top effort the whole way.
he is fighting history in terms of the number of preps, but to me that does not rule him out, especially this year.
I'm not saying that he is my pick, or can't lose, but I am saying that I am not going to rule him out because of the number of preps or who his trainer is.
right now I would say that to me its between him, Street Sense and Dominican. Domincan is the most interesting because everyone is going to write him off as a poly specialist. but he was really impressive how he ran in the BG.