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Originally Posted by somerfrost
If you bet the Derby based on which horse obtains the best sheet number in a single race, which horse has the single highest Beyer or which horse has the best PF, you are the psychotic one. Instead of finding a way to be critical (and appear rather ignorant of basic handicapping), I'd suggest using the PF's (or Beyers or Sheets) in the way in which they were meant to be utilized...as part of the handicapping process! All any speed figures will give you is the basis for a comparative analysis of different races at different tracks...if handicapping a race like the Derby were as easy as just picking some number, I suspect even you could select the winner.
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All you did was post the last Roman numbers of final preps the last 3 years like that meant something. I just commented that to me they looked meaningless considering Barbaro won the race last year off the Fl Derby and Giacomo won in 2005 off the SA Derby. I realize you need to look at a horses whole body of work to properly "handicap" a race alledgedly. I guess I probably really am ignorant of basic handicapping...I'd shoot myself however before I spent 1 penny betting on a race (well, not really, I guess if someone threatened to shoot me or bet on the Derby, I'd probably bet the Derby!!). But as an ignorant handicapper, I think it looked quite obvious that Curlin ran a better race than any BG participant yesterday. IF I'm wrong on that point, I'm wrong. But yes, one race is one race and certainly if Giacomo beat Bellamy road, then certainly any BG participant could certainly beat Curlin the first Saturday in May, and I don't think the Roman numbers or Beyers have anything to do with it.
I'm sure his formula is fine and the numbers he come up with have a basis, but what I saw yesterday tells me Curlin was the best animal running. The numbers are a curiosity for me, I like them for the most part, but I have no financial reason to scour over them, I will never make a bet ever...especially with most top trainers now being proven to be cheaters. I only follow the sport becuase they are beautiful animals and it's racing so you will always have a winner determined in quick fashion.
(To prove my ignorance, the last Ky Derby winner I properly selected was Strike the Gold...so I am on a 16 year drought!! so in all liklihood I am out of my element arguing this one!!)