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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't know if the betting public will make Curlin the favorite on race-day, for no other reason than the fact that he's only had three career starts under him....
You'll start to hear more and more of "No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo, in 1882, has won the race without starting at age 2." the 125 year gap in that trend will be beaten to death in the press.
I realize Indian Charlie was the KY Derby favorite, with just four races under him---but, he did race at 2 (not that it means anything anyway) and was a really sensational raw talent. He made his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and toyed with a very strong field. Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by a nose, was 2nd to him. Artax, who would win a championship sprinting the next year was a distant 3rd. Many of the also-rans improved their form in stakes next time out.
Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Beyer is still the highest ever published in the DRF in the history of that race...and his final time broke Affirmed's stakes record. As super as Curlin has been in all three starts, IC brought a bigger repute into the Derby.
I think Street Sense will be a very slight favorite in the end---and I agree with you...the favorite should be in the 7/2-to-5/1 range.
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After watching the Arkansas Derby 3 times it is very evident Curlin is very talented and very untested. That was an easy trip for a very good horse. I personally have a hard time with any horse that has not been tested or had some trouble. But Curlin is so good, he runs with such ease and appears to be fully in control. Its so hard to assess a horse this good that has not been in a war or run into some trouble.
You may be right about Street Sense. However, I think his showing over Churchill already, will be what puts him over more than Curlin's lack of racing. What seems wacky to me is the world of previous outcomes:
if Street Sense had lost at Tampa by a nose, and won the Blue Grass by a nose (especially after the right sweep run in the stretch), I think he would be a clearer favorite as seen by the general public.