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Originally Posted by pgardn
Curlin will go off as the favorite most likely. But if this years Derby was bet properly, I could see the favorite as being one of the longest prices of all time. I mean there are so many horses that could win this year. And what if Curlin draws like Brother Derek last year. The favorite could/should be 5 or 6 to 1.
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I don't know if the betting public will make Curlin the favorite on race-day, for no other reason than the fact that he's only had three career starts under him....
You'll start to hear more and more of "No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo, in 1882, has won the race without starting at age 2." the 125 year gap in that trend will be beaten to death in the press.
I realize Indian Charlie was the KY Derby favorite, with just four races under him---but, he did race at 2 (not that it means anything anyway) and was a really sensational raw talent. He made his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and toyed with a very strong field. Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by a nose, was 2nd to him. Artax, who would win a championship sprinting the next year was a distant 3rd. Many of the also-rans improved their form in stakes next time out.
Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Beyer is still the highest ever published in the DRF in the history of that race...and his final time broke Affirmed's stakes record. As super as Curlin has been in all three starts, IC brought a bigger repute into the Derby.
I think Street Sense will be a very slight favorite in the end---and I agree with you...the favorite should be in the 7/2-to-5/1 range.