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Originally Posted by eurobounce
Very good point by Oracle and Scuds. People often combine a past performance with a horses odds. The two dont have a thing in common. This is why race replays are the best handicapping tool in all of sports.
Now to the Acorn.....Lemons Forver--NOT A CHANCE IN HECK. This horse needs to be in two turn races. The horse should like the track but needs two turns. Bushfire has that extra furlong and I wouldnt touch her at all for the win in this race. Teamate looks good to me. I can forgive her last race. But the horse I am interested in is Joint Effort.
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Agree with everything you said, including Joint Effort.
Tim what the public thought a horse would do has no place in a discussion about how a horse ran. And I think that where it makes no sense is when you will say that so and so is a rat after losing at short odds narrowly and that so and so ran huge in the same type of effort because of the odds. Would Barbaro's Derby have been more impressive if he was 20-1 or less impressive if he was 3-5? I think that a race is a race, and the odds have nothing to do with it whatsoever.