Leg D (OP 11): 71st Running of THE ARKANSAS DERBY (Grade II), $1,000,000 For Three Year Olds. 1 1/8 Miles on the DIRT
(1) DELIGHTFUL KISS (Anderson/Baze) 10-1
Deep closer should appreciate his first start at nine panels on the dirt, having closed to be third at 20-1 last out in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby. Before that, he pulled off a 23-1 upset in a mile N1X at GP. He really has come alive as a three-year-old, and he's worked like nothing bothered him since the TB Derby. Pretty much always runs his race, and if a speed duel comes together, he could be looming at a big price.
(2) CURLIN (Asmussen/Albarado) 7-5
This guy could be REALLY good. Simply ran over his foes at GP in seven-furlong debut, scoring by 12 3/4, then stepped into graded stakes company and stretched out to two turns in just his second start, which was no problem either. He relaxed off the pace, then blew by everyone to score by 5 1/4. Since then, he's worked well twice at KEE and gone an easy half on Monday. Now he draws closer inside, and will have to deal with getting some dirt in his face early. Nothing's seemed to bother him thus far, so who's to say that the inside post will give him fits? Other connections not afraid, as nine others entered. Gets his major test before a possible start in the Derby.
(3) OFFICER ROCKET (Holthus/Quinonez) 6-1
Officer chestnut showed some real promise at two, and showed signs of improving at three when running second at 12-1 in the $250,000 Southwest, but regressed when getting smacked silly by Curlin in the G3 Rebel. Quite possible that Quinonez moved a bit too soon, but still don't think he was catching Curlin. Capable of bouncing back, but if Curlin's on his game, the Rocket might be in the pocket late.
(4) GOING BALLISTIC (Von Hemel/Berry) 12-1
Started twice at three, and been beaten by Officer Rocket handily a few times, although he did manage to run fourth at 18-1 last out when compromised by a wide post. Gets the length of the stretch to run down the speed today, but like many others, his best might be a bit short if the big guns are blazing. Underneath.
(5) FLYING FIRST CLASS (Lukas/Thompson) 8-1
Perfect Mandate colt ran out of his mind two back, blowing away maidens by 8 and earning a gargantuan figure of 107 for his work. Then he stretched around two turns, tracked a ho-hum pace, and folded to finish eighth as the 9/5 chalk in the G3 Rebel. One thing he's got working for him is there isn't a ton of speed signed on in here, so he could have his way on the lead. Prado doesn't see fit to take the flight in, instead staying at KEE. Think he improves, but still comes up short in the final furlong.
(6) STORM IN MAY (Kaplan/Leyva) 15-1
Gray colt upset the $250,000 Sunshine Millions Dash at 26-1 three back, then steadied on the turn and finished sixth in the G2 Hutcheson at GP. Hopped on the grass and ran third in the G3 Palm Beach, now returns to dirt, and turf-to-dirt produced his best effort to date. Not sure routing on the dirt is his thing, but not sure that it isn't, either. Tricky read.
(7) OLYMPIC CHIEF (Davidson/Kato) 50-1
Probably a pretty nice horse, but this is a tall order for a first-time starter. Can't quite remember the last time a debuter popped up in a $1,000,000 race. To be fair, he's decently-bred and he's bred to love the slop, which could help him out with rains forecast for Friday and Saturday. Dam was unraced, lone sibling to race went 24/3-5-3, banked $42,876, but earned a top figure of just 62. Can't see how.
(8) SLEW BY SLEW (Von Hemel/Pettinger) 20-1
Second Von Hemel trainee comes into this off a solid N3L win in the slop locally going 8 1/2 furlongs, so the elements shouldn't faze him today. The competition might though, as this is a much better field than the last group he faced, and his top figure of 87 leaves much to be desired. Pass.
(9) FOR YOU REPPO - Scratched
(10) DEADLY DEALER (Pletcher/Velazquez) 4-1
Concerto bay certainly impressed in his first start for Pletcher last out, setting a pretty quick clip, yet pulling away to win by 7 going 7 1/2 panels at GP. Now he stretches out to two turns, and draws a field that doesn't have a ton of early gas signed up. If he can shake off Flying First Class, he could be plenty tough to run down. Most recent figure of 104 makes him darn scary, and Velazquez coming in for the ride only helps his case. Like that they've given him a lot of time to recover from that last race, and he's got four solid breezes for foundation. Dam was a sprinter, but that doesn't mean this dude can't route. Scary.
2 - CURLIN
Looked super in Rebel, another 1/16 can only help him, should save ground
10 - DEADLY DEALER
Sharp as a razor at GP, gets the two-turn test, Velazquez in to ride
3 - OFFICER ROCKET
Moved early last time out, should sit the trip
1 - DELIGHTFUL KISS
Capable of sharing if speed duel comes to be
PICK FOUR TICKET: 2,5,7 / 4,7 / 4,6,8 / 2, $18 for every $1.
Good luck everyone!
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