(4) STREET SENSE (Nafzger/Borel) 4-5
Last year's BC Juvy winner and this year's early favorite for the KY Derby finally made his three-year-old debut in the Mar. 17 G3 Tampa Bay Derby, closing from off the pace to score a game nose victory over Any Given Saturday in a thrilling race. He's been working well since, but not sure there's that much improvement coming off that last effort. Didn't have much issue with KEE polytrack when third at 11-1 in last fall's G1 Breeders' Futurity, but knowing Nafzger, a win in here probably isn't as important as a workout, and that's always a red flag on a 4/5 shot. That's not to say that he won't win, because he's certainly a professional racehorse with a strong closing kick, but he's not unbeatable by any means.
(5) TIME SQUARED (Biancone/Leparoux) 30-1
NY-bred bounces back on just eight days' rest after local win, in which he didn't earn a big figure (67), but impressively closed behind a molasses pace, running his final 5/16 in :29 2/5. He should be closing again today if a pace duel materializes, but this is a serious step up in class for the Fusaichi Pegasus colt. Underneath at best.
(6) TEUFLESBERG (Sanders/Prado) 10-1
Heavily-raced son of Johannesburg was purchased as a yearling for $9,000, and has certainly proved to be a bargain, banking $347,931 so far. Speedy colt draws a field without much early foot, and he ran big two back on the front end, scoring at 23-1 in the $250,000 Southwest at OP. Last time out, he wasn't ready for the break, and couldn't get to the front, yet still ran on well to be third behind impressive winner Curlin, who goes as the favorite in today's G2 AR Derby. He's got a tendency to be clumsy out of the gate, and with today's hurdles, he's going to need a sharp break. Certainly not impossible, but thinking he'll get a little wobbly late.
(7) GREAT HUNTER (O'Neill/Nakatani) 9-5
Reddam colt won the Breeders' Futurity over Street Sense last fall, but then was handled, just as everyone else was, by that colt in the BC Juvy. After that came a long break for this son of Aptitude, from which he came back quite nicely to grab the G2 Robert and Beverly Lewis at SA. Not sure how much he beat that day, considering Sam P. came back to tap out in the G1 SA Derby last week, but the fact that the 'Hunter did it off amount four months on the pine was impressive. Not exactly enthused that O'Neill's other big sophomores, Liquidity and Cobalt Blue, did nothing whatsoever last week, and now this guy is asked to ship across country and take on a horse that ran circles around him last time they met. Contender for sure, but may be overbet.
4 - STREET SENSE
Clearly the horse to beat, not a lock
7 - GREAT HUNTER
Not quite sure what to make of last win, has had polytrack success
2 - DOMINICAN
Could get first jump on the two chalks
6 - TEUFLESBERG
With a clean break, he could hold on for longer than most think
Leg C (OP 10): 5th Running of THE INSTANT RACING BREEDERS' CUP, $100,000 For Fillies, Three Year Olds, 1 Mile on the DIRT
(1) CHAMPAGNE SUE (Flint/Baze) 20-1
Didn't do a ton of running in KEE debut last fall, but certainly came back running locally Mar. 24, cruising by 2 1/2 in a six-panel sprint. She came home in :13+, but that'll happen when you're a length back of a :21 3/5 quarter mile, and if nothing else, the race gave her a good foundation for a step forward. Draws the rail and tries two turns for the first time in here. Bred decently to be a miler, being by Elusive Quality, however, most of her siblings were better sprinting than routing, and considering this lady's speed, that may be the case with her as well. Consider.
(2) RITA KATRINA - Scratched
(3) HART'S SUNSET (Schultz/Quinonez) 8-1
Flew late to get second at 16-1 in the $45,000 Houston Oaks two back, then scored in the mud at HOU last out as the even-money chalk. She needs to raise her game a bit to compete with these, as her top effort to date might not get it done. At least we know she can get the distance, and if she gets some pace, she'll be flying late again.
(4) STELLAS NEW GROOVE (Ritter/Razo) 10-1
Stepped up in class in the $100,000 Honeybee last out, and while she didn't make a huge impact, she certainly wasn't embarrassed by some serious fillies, running fourth at 24-1. Like the tactical speed she showed in there, and now she's had time to regroup for her next shot at a two-turn stake. Dangerous.
(5) NICE INHERITANCE (Asmussen/Albarado) 8-1
Reeled off three in a row, including an impressive win in the $50,000 Island Fashion at SUN before throwing in a perplexing stinker in the $200,000 WinStar Oaks. If she can bounce back from that weak effort, she could be mighty dangerous, especially if a pace duel manifests in front of her. Needs things to fall her way.
(6) WELLOFAPRIZE (Pletcher/Velazquez) 12-1
Pure Prize girl ran well on polytrack last fall, lit up the tote in a 52-1 win at KEE, then didn't do much running in the G2 Golden Rod, and perhaps it was a bit too much too soon for her. She joined Pletcher's barn over the winter, has been working beautifully, and now Johnny V. sees fit to ride. Another one that would benefit from some pace up front. Scary on barn switch alone.
(7) NEW EDITION (Jones/Thompson) 5-1
Certainly has proven her merit around one turn, romping by 4 1/2 in a local N2L two back, but she faded in a slightly tougher spot last out, and her two-turn tries haven't been stellar. But perhaps she's just turned the corner, and is ready to carry her speed a mile. Short stretch should help her hold off the closers. Interesting.
(8) ANGEL SMOKE (Robertson/Martinez) 3-1
Smoke Glacken daughter has done nothing but get better and better, narrowly missing against return winner Moon Catcher two back, then dusting some optional claimers last out going 1/16 further. Now she gets the acid test, but her figures certainly put her in business, and gotta love the tactical speed. Long run into the turn should keep her from getting hung too wide around the first bend. Major player.
(9) CREAM ONLY (Asmussen/Doocy) 6-1
Didn't get the best of trips in FG N1X last out, but still ran a narrow third, and Exchange Rate gray has been working well for this. Thinking that Albarado had his choice of the two Asmussens though, and he took the other filly. Tactical speed a plus, as this race doesn't seem to set up for a closer, but does seem to be a stalker's paradise. Tough on her best, but might be a cut below the top fillies.
(10) CHATHAM (Stewart/Desormeaux) 9-2
Overbrook bay had been sprinting decently at FG, but really broke through last time out, scoring by a neck at 7-1 while seemingly tiring late. Perhaps Albarado thinks she can't go two bends and plops down elsewhere. A little interesting, but think the class rise and the stretchout, combined, will do her in.
8 - ANGEL SMOKE
Steps up in class, but possesses good tactical speed and strong kick
6 - WELLOFAPRIZE
First-time Pletcher angle noted, been blowing bullets and lures Velazquez
4 - STELLAS NEW GROOVE
Got her education in Honeybee, should be better for it
7 - NEW EDITION
May have turned the corner, but probably a little better around one turn
(continued again..)
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