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Originally Posted by Payson Dave
How many horses have run in the Derby with just 2 preps?...
If the population of 2 prep runners is quite small then it would be reasonable to assume that the number of 2 prep winners would be quite small...
Also how many 2 prep runners were Derby Fever type entrants as opposed to notable horses with calculated/planned 2 prep foundation?
I am not endorsing the 2 prep approach...I'm simply saying that there are various ways to compare past history to current events....figures lie and liars figure.
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It's the same fallacy of the "5 week layoff" into the Derby that was broken last year. What (legitimate) preps, exactly, were available 5 weeks out until the Fla Derby was moved 2 years ago? The answer: NONE.
I would prefer a 3-4 race campaign prep but only 2 would NOT be the reason I wouldn't back Street Sense or Great Hunter on Derby Day.