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Originally Posted by Dunbar
It was a rookie mistake I made, Grits. Glad BTWind was looking over my shoulder. If I can just train myself to look for that asterisk in the equibase chart, I should be okay going forward!
I'm actually rooting for Place in this showdown, so it's funny I'd blow it in the other direction.
One thing seems clear to me at this point. 250 place bets isn't enough to resolve the issue on which is the better strategy with any sort of statistical certainty. (Though it's of course enough to resolve any bet you and randall may have made!) We are getting daily differences that are twice as big as the overall difference. At this point we are waiting for the head bob to see which will win.
It looks as if the first 250 bets will be finished in about 5 weeks from the start. If no one objects, I will continue until a total of 500 place bets have been made. But we'll go ahead and announce the 250-bet winner when that occurs.
--Dunbar
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The reality is that the exacta is mathematically the right bet and an aberational result that showed place bets " winning " would be deceptive and unfortunate.
I agree about the relatively small sample size, and always felt all you needed to do was look over six months of past results, but the contest was created for whatever reasons in this manner. Regardless, it's been fun.