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Originally Posted by banter
I'm intrigued by the 8th race, the G2 Vinery Madison. Who do you folks like in this one?
(btw... Annika Lass has scratched)
Seems to me that this is a wide open affair with at least four runners--Mary Delaney, Ginger Punch, Bright Abundance, and Leahs Secret--having the best chances to take it, and all at decent odds.
I'm tossing Yolanda B Too because, though she's fast enough, her last two races against graded company weren't that competitve and she has never tried a synthetic surface.
I really want to go with Bright Abundance--she's quick, she's the class of the field, she loves to win coming off a freshening, and she's been routing so she has a lot of bottom to her--but she's been strictly a turf runner up 'til now. Apparently Clemente believes a connection exists between success on the turf and success on Polytrack, but no-one has yet proven it to me. So I've drawn a line through Bright Abundance.
Brisnet says that Leahs Secret lacks the credentials to win the honors today, but I have to disagree. She's a seven furlong specialist, is running third off a layoff, and has won both her prior races at Keeneland. She looks good to me, but I have reservations because her recent form hasn't exactly been sparkling. So I'm drawing a line through her, too.
Ginger Punch is an improving lightly-raced filly who won her last 7f outing at Keeneland. Only once in her career has she failed to hit the board. Plus she has Frankel and Bejarano on her side. So, her chances can't be discounted. But she would have to step up big-time to prove that she can run well in graded company. So, she gets a line from me as far as the win is concerned.
So I've talked myself into going with Mary Delaney if her odds don't drop too much (morning line is 9/2). Her speed figures are competitive, she thrives on synthetic surfaces, she has won going 7f at Keeneland before, and she has been on the lead or within 3 lengths of the leader in her last three outs, indicating that her form is excellent right now. Plus she gets Prado. I'm still very concerned that, if she's sent right to the lead, the track at Keeneland will eat her up. Gate-to-wire speed rarely wins there. Nevertheless, and despite the jump in class she's making today, Mary Delaney is my top choice for the win.
Any differing opinions?
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