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Originally Posted by Pointg5
I think he's going to be a factor going into the Derby and I will most likely use him in the top spot:
He was brilliant enough at 2 to track a quick pace and kick out a 92 BSF.
He can come from off the pace and be on the pace or track slow fractions.
He doesn't fight the rider.
He will be overlooked big time in the Derby and should offer a nice price.
I don't think the pace will be fast in the Derby and he could make the lead or stay just off of it. I think he will be left alone by most of the other jockeys.
I don't have "jockey love" in fact I think there's not much difference between them, but if Jara stays aboard, he's won the Belmont, The BC Classic, DWC within the last year, so he should be fine.
and he wins under different circumstances.
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Good luck with that.
He isn't a BAD horse, but I think using him on top of exotic wagers in the Kentucky Derby is akin to flushing $10 down the toilet and hoping that the turd faries give you $100 in exchange.
He will be overbet in a big way. His Illinois Derby looks better than it was, and every cat lover and cow lover that bets on derby day will play him.
Jara is a good jock, and you are right about his big wins in the BCC and the DWC. If he was riding the horse he rode in those races I'd play him, but I don't think any jock who ever lived could drag CC over the finish line first in a G1 10f race.
(Plus I already TOLD you.....he will finish exactly 16th)