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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
This is a great example of why computer driven numbers like BRIS makes are a dangerously deceptive product. I talked about this number with Beyer for a long time, and one of the main things he said was that 1 1/8 races, which are rarely run at Hawthorne, create hard to defend times. While War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted probably deserved the high numbers Beyer gave them for their Illinois Derbies, Greeley's Galaxy and Sweetnorthernsaint may not have. Fleet Indian earned a crazy high raw figure in her 1 1/8 win at Hawthorne last year as well.
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Not to mention rarely run at multiple class levels; therefore a skewed sample is resultant for the "par" time.
One thing I do like about Timeforms (as useless as they are) is they provide a "key" to the confidence level in the fig.