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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
When Fleet Indian won that race with the insane raw number from last year, I believe there was a Graded Stake race for colts that was also run at 9 furlongs and went MUCH slower....albeit it may have been the worst Grade 3 for older males ever...and even still the massive gap in the times seemed fishy.
I think a case can be made that the other numbers you mention were all legit. SNS had a dream trip in that HAW win...and his tough trip 2nd in the Preakness two races later seemed to confirm that number to me. Greeley's Galaxy was bias aided and beat a lousy field by a lopsided margin. In War Emblem's case, he was an impressive Preakness winner two races later. Ten Most Wanted was 2nd in the Belmont two races later..and won the Travers later on.
As for Cowtown Cat's number, it's a hard figure to have any confidence in either way...and I don't even want to stab at it myself.
I agree though---the computerized version of speed figures are more likely to make a big mistake, and mistakes compound with figures, and as they add up the figures become less and less reliable.
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Yep, Three Hour Nap won a dreadful rendition of the National Jockey Club G3. Summer Book ran second and Courthouse (still looking to clear his NW3X condition...)ran third and was later DQ'ed. For kicks, favorites Colita and Evening Attire ran a long looking last and second to last. That race was just awful, but Fleet Indian ran a monster race and the time was very swift given the surface is was run over which has a tendency to produce less than stunning raw times.