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Originally Posted by pick4
Your analysis of the BSF's for Florida Derby day are the best I've even seen anyone critically analize the numbers. I'll have to break out the charts and do the same because you might be on to something. Most times the Beyers are on target but sometimes they are wrong. There's $ to be made when you can pinpoint incorrect calcultions of BSF's.
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I agree that generally speaking, the Beyers are pretty solid. And I think they're definitely better than 10 years ago. Unlike some, I think its a good thing to change numbers after the fact. At least they will admit they made a mistake initially.
I also agree w/Vol Jack: the AP Arrow figure really is the key here. I think the Beyer people put too much into projections for the Mdn race and NW1X, when in fact horses at those levels can improve dramatically.
I think Chelokee becomes a very live longshot for tris, exactas and supers (as does Notional, although the price won't be as high).