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Originally Posted by Kimmeastar
I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.
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I can see it's pointless to discuss this and you're simply not willing to learn anything or open to comprehending the topic at hand. But I'll try to address a couple of these saliant points..
Did nothing at 2.. Well, he's by Pleasant Tap who tends to get late developers and didn't make his first start at 2 until Opening Day at Santa Anita, so I'm not sure how much more he could have done.. But he did get a requisite 'start as a 2 year old' if you're looking for Derby voodoo. As a reminder, Charismatic did nothing at 2.. Grindstone had 2 starts as a 2 year old.. Fusaichi Pegasus made one runner up start at 2.. War Emblem won a maiden and ALW race at AP and FG.. Monarchos was 8th and 3rd in his 2 starts as a juvenile.. WHAT'S YOUR POINT?
Hasn't done anything outside California? Silver Charm and Giacomo had never been outside California before the Derby..
Your handicapping? I guess pedigree has no place in it either.. His dam has already produced a Derby winner and his sire was a champion; ran in 4 different Breeders' Cup races finishing 2nd in both the Sprint and Classic. And of course being by Pleasant Tap he should get better with added ground.
Horses 'attending the pace' in the Derby? Recent winners that were at least 8 lengths back after a half mile or 5 lengths back after three quarters in the Derby: Sea Hero; Grindstone; Real Quiet; FuPeg; Monarchos; Giacomo..