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Originally Posted by Kimmeastar
I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.
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What are you talking about? its not that everyone is abuzz over the horse. Steve merely said not to ignore him and that the possibility exists that he could win. That doesn't mean he was predicting a win. Predicting that he won't win is pretty lame and not very bold.
And what monsters are waiting to eat him alive? Who is your pick as of today.
If you ask me its too early to start ruling out a horse like Tiago as having no chance.