[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There are quite a few viable candidates for most overrated performance in my mind.


I think by far the most underrated performance was the 4th place finish by Hard Spun in the Southwest Stakes.

Before you even watch the race, you have to keep in mind that there was a strong inside bias that day...and speed was holding up exceptionally well. For example, a Wayne Lukas maiden, got an easy lead in a maiden race on the undercard, and exploded to a wire-to-wire win with a 107 Beyer, while running almost two full seconds faster than an ALW race for 3yo males.

Hard Spun, who'd been on the lead in all of his previous races, was taken back, behind a comically slow early pace (At the same distance earlier on in the card, a bottom level condition claimer, with very modest speed and a horrible form went wire-to-wire after setting much faster fractions)

To make matters worse, he was positioned out wide...on a day when you needed to be inside.

Now, a superior horse can sometimes overcome a true track bias. A superior horse can sometimes overcome a pace disadvantage, and a superior horse can sometimes overcome a bad tactical ride. However, no horse can overcome all 3---unless he's literally double digit lengths better than his opposition.

From a handicapping prospective, Hard Spun had every reason in the world to run markedly below his career worst race. And while he missed the board, in a cheap stake, against bums---he did so with a solid 95 Beyer. If you believe the figure of that race, and you factor in the trip and circumstances, that performance is right there with anyones in this crop now.

I agree 100% with this. Not to mention the ground loss at Oaklawn at a mile is even MORE significant because you lose an entire 1/16th to make that ground up in the stretch.

I'm mystified at the decision to skip the Blue Grass and try to win the Derby off a 6 week layoff. Monkey see, monkey do I guess.