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Originally Posted by philcski
My good friend Sniper made the great observation that Jazil runs the same every race, :25 quarters like clockwork. So for him, more distance is a good thing... otherwise, I tend to agree with the statement that closers don't necessarily move up at longer distances.
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Well this brings up a good pt. For me, if I can find a good closer finishing in less than 25, he is real good for the derby. Even 25 sec. may get it done on some days.
Even more important, I think you can determine which horses may not be able to get more distance by seeing what times they are finishing up with. A good barometer is about 27 1/2 sec final quarter.
Look at the Fountain of Youth, both Adore the GOld run the final 1/8 in 13.75 or a little more. They look to be hitting the wall based on that. Next race is the Fl derby same distance, the time at 3/4 mile is actually a little slower, but they ran the 4th Quarter just a little faster. Result they both collapsed.
look at KingoRoxy. He runs the last 1/8 in 13.5 over presumably faster track and connections say he is going to Preakness.
You can learn a lot by looking at these final times. Sure a closer like Tiago probably cant do it. But Circular Key? Zanjero? Great Hunter?