I am not sure why they think Oaklawn and Churchill Downs are so similar. Hard Spun though doesn't appear to be in the elite category. The Lexington is another polytrack race which he obviously handled. If I am correct, Hard Spun will be worth quite a bit in the breeding shed, and maybe they feel a win in the Lexington will be worth more than a 5th or 6th place finish in the derby, which is the best I could see him doing.