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Originally Posted by Kasept
B,
I'm still uncertain about leaving him off the P4 play... Hemmed and hawwed about it...
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At 3-1, my finger will twitch. At 4-1 or more, I'll play him pretty good. ML of 12-1 is silly. Besides liking him, the others:
Setter Jr: Been on the track once in three months, bumps up (O'Connell win % going DOWN in class is 2.5x what it is when she goes up) and O'Connell's barn is not going well right now She also does pretty good 1st out at Calder every year, so I figure he'll run better next out at Calder in his 3rd in cycle for 12.5k or 10k than he'll run today.
Amer Coin is 1 for 18 or so over the past year and a half. First off the claim but 18/1-1-5 is a pass for me at a short number.
Stylishly: 6th race in 80-some days and I'm no fan of Kendall, especially at a short price. Last two wins both came with interim work(s).
Stevebisquit: Joe Waunsch is a real good trainer and I wouldn't bet any horse claimed off him first out, especially after a poor plunge race. Waunsch had this horse off 10 months, got him back to win a couple and run second all within 3-4 weeks and wound up plunging him.
It's Lucky: Hicklin's very good and won a small stakes with this horse as a 3 yo. I like this horse today and used him along with Layton. If the race falls apart late, he's the one and Gonzales over Montalvo is a plus. Won his only 6.5f race. Double Karma change at a price.