Please understand Miraja; I had to re think my thinking in the middle of that last post. I hope I got that across in the last post, I didnt feel like retyping all of it.

think your idea is correct if we are asking the question what are the chance of an INDIVIDUAL horse winning a tc?

If we ask the question what are the chances of the public seeing a TC, then it is different, because in that case, no matter what the size of the KY derby, the public is always going to get a winner out of that race...

I know it sounds like semantics, but a lot of mathematical questions come down to semantics. So I dont feel it's a cop out or anything, just comes with the territory I guess.

You can chime in now, I was going to post more but will see what you say...