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Originally Posted by Kasept
People shouldn't totally assume that Violette was training only based off the Beyer. But the funny part of the figure revision story was that he had mentioned the 'big fig'. Violette is a very accomplished horseman.
One thing that seems to come through here is that people seem to think that the figure-making is simply a formula that is put through its' paces based only final times and variant, and it's not. There is a human element to it and certain performances, atmospheric and track conditions can make it a very difficult proposition.
As Haskin said Thursday to me on the show, Gotham Day last Saturday was warm and sunny until late in the day when the temperature dove 15 degrees and a stiff wind came in off the sound. Haskin was in the jock's room before the Gotham and said the jocks were commenting that the track had gone absolutely dead, and certainly the bizarre splits in the race, which featured several fast sprinters stretching out, confirmed that.
On a day like this, there can be split variants. That makes the fig calculations much, much tougher. Add in golden or dead rails and blowout, open length victories, and you have a recipe for goofy numbers.
More importantly, Beyer Associates, as well as Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, are ALWAYS doing the right thing when they adjust figures ATF (after the fact).. It's better to acknowledge human error and get it right than to dogmatically stand by discrepencies when they arise later. It's an inexact science.
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This was WAY too long to wait to revisit a BSF. And, if it was truly based on Summer Doldrum's subsequent race in the Gotham, then the revision is completely indefensible. If Beyer is going to rely on future races to adjust his earlier figs, then the whole process becomes circular and meaningless. (If Summer Doldrums wins by open lengths against CQ, Ravel or some other major contender next time out, will Beyer be revising his figs up again?!)
Human error occurs, no doubt about it. I'm not demanding perfection. But future performance should not be an excuse to revisit earlier speed figs.
I don't understand why Beyer Assoc feels the need to get the figs out so quickly after a race. It's not like those horses are going to come back on 2 days rest. It would be better to take a little more time with it in the first place and cut down on the error rate.
--Dunbar