It's a horseplayer's job to understand money being bet on first time starters.
To start with the Bush horse at Aqueduct today....Tom Bush shows a 3% win percentage ( in his case 1-34 ) with first time starters in DRF. Yet, this horse was bet like IRON. That's all you need to know. His workouts ( which, yes, I don't trust ) don't matter. You see plenty of horses making their first starts with fast works, sometimes from good trainers, that take no money at the windows and they rarely win. When a trainer like Tom Bush, who's a good trainer but has done poorly with firsters, gets bet like today you, the horseplayer, are at fault for not using him. The board is WAY more telling than workouts will ever be...at least printed works that is. Even if they are accurate, unless you or someone you know sees them, you have no idea what conditions they were earned under.
The bottom line.....horseplayers are MUCH better off getting to know what kind of action trainers take on their firsters ( live and dead ) and following the board from there. Some trainers are dead at 4-1....while others are live at 12-1.
Now, the Big Stable.....when they won with their first firster of the meet ( they won with one more ) I called Beyer right after the race and said the putover horse of the year just won. A trainer we never heard of, a jockey we never heard of, and the horse aired. It did NOT seem random. Now, luckily for me, Beyer noted this better than I did, as he was the one who reminded me when they had their next firster. We both bet.....and scored with the horse at 35-1. Subsequently, the horse that won today's first, was bet VERY strongly in his next start, after finishing around last at 89-1 in his first Gulfstream start. That was enough for me....and I cashed on a visually impressive win at 10-1. I made a small bet on another winner of there's, a 9-2 shot dropping from MSW to maiden claimers, who flashed speed in his debut.
The lesson is that the signals were sent out by the Big Stable very early in the meet, and without any information, some of us were able to capitalize on their victories. That's our job. I'm sure I also miss a lot but it is incumbant on every horse player to figure out for themselves how to make money on putovers. It can be done.
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