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Originally Posted by dylbert
Why is Beyer Speed Figure so sacred to so many horse players today? It is merely another indicator of past performance not touchstone to victory.
In reading and re-reading some of Andy Beyer's work, he emphasizes that while this is an important factor to consider -- it is not only one to consider. My personal fascination is that I have seen Birdbirdistheword run two outstanding races. And I didn't mention this in earlier posting, I watched Delta Jackpot for racetrack apron where I could see entire track on brisk December night.
Last point, please read Randy Moss' comments at www.drf.com. These are contained is Moss Pace Figure comments. Randy who works as Beyer associate made Delta Jackpot BSFs! The 86 was downgraded by 12 points because of torrid pace scenario. Does an 98 make you feel better about this horse? I will gladly accept third win at above 5-to-1 on superior horse!
Gotta dash to New Orleans now! |
Well here's what Randy Moss actually said,
"Birdbirdistheworld is questionable from the opposite perspective. He comes out of the $1 million Delta Jackpot, in which the pace was almost unbelievably fast. Birdbirdistheword and Pirates Deputy raced at the rear early, four lengths behind the rest of the pack, and yet finished one-two when the speed collapsed. The Beyer Speed Figure of 87 is debatable. I know that because as an associate of Andy Beyer in the making of the Beyer numbers, I actually made that figure. It was projected downward by about 12 points because of the pace, and a couple of horses closer to the pace meltdown have predictably come back to run higher numbers. But Pirate’s Deputy, who got an 86 in the race, has returned to run 84 and 80 in his subsequent starts. Whatever the number, Birdbirdistheword had a perfect setup when he took down the big jackpot at Delta."