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Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Dynamite Lass won't be on the pace - that one race where she led all the way had another very slow pace. This year she has been more effective closing from midpack.
Actually, Noble Stella's best races last year were when she didn't have to set a pokey pace but was able to come from midpack. She is one-paced and that lands her on the lead if nobody wants the lead but behind when there is someone faster in the race.
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You're right, Noble Stella's best races last year were from behind. However, those races would not be good enough to contend with the likes of Angara and Asi Siempre. The simple fact is that the best race she ever ran was last time when she loafed on the lead. She is not going to be able to beat both of those horses tomorrow without a crawling lead.
I am also well aware that Dynamite Lass is not technically a speed horse. I understand full well the situation that led to her front running victory at Saratoga. However, when she defeated Noble Stella on March 4th, she was actually ahead of that rival through the first half mile ( prior to Bejarano losing contact with the field ), so should another paceless scenerio develop, it is hardly a stretch to suggest that Dynamite Lass COULD join, or even lead, Noble Stella on the front end.
I was hardly declaring either one of these horses as speed horses, but in a paceless race, having enough speed to dictate can obviously enhance one's chances. Being that every trainer, and even jockey, is aware of what happened in the Sheepshead Bay, just as Frankel and Prado were aware of English Channel's potential pace advantage in the Manhattan when they decided to send Cacique to the lead, it is highly unlikely a scenerio such as what happened in that race will occur once again. For that reason it does not appear likely that Noble Stella can win. And, as was pointed out earlier, she will be nowhere near the 14-1 she was previously, so it is hard to make a case that she is a good bet tomorrow.