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Originally Posted by Kasept
Blew a huge score here yesterday making Fair Weather Stan the Longshot Alert play as opposed to keeping him in the body of main selections. (And he did start out in the body of the selection...)
Using the 5 horses suggested in the P3 play in the P4 would have boosted P4 cost to $80 from $48 and brought back $1,700. Sickening... And of course top pick and much the best Artie Hot should have won the race anyway had laughable Juan Leyva not moved too early on the runner up. (Wouldn't have paid $1,700 in that scenario of course.)
How Fair Weather Stan was allowed to go off at 19-1 is beyond me, (6-1 in ML), and shows how annoting it can be to 'publish' picks. Fair Weather Stan was "interesting and useable" at 6-1 when writing up the race in the morning, but was totally loveable at 19-1 at post time..
All the late action was there and I was unable to put them together properly. Hope you spread them together better than I did... And I won't even talk about the Aqueduct results which were similarly maddening...
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If I'm wrong I apologize and I'm certainly not one to critique but I recall you noting a week or two back your P-4 plays might have even better results with slightly expanded tix, at least in some sequences. I think yesterday's 4 was one of those that may have merited a wider play for the sole reason that there were two limited claming turf races. In my experience these are the price generating races and when there are two of them in the 4, ....
Your handicapping is truly outstanding and scoring yesterday on a small ticket was very tough. I played a 2x5x2x6 ticket and was live going into the last but I left out My Own Story and ran 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th.
Keep up the great work!
As an aside, you're being too kind in your Juan Leyva reference. I see him ride 3 or 4 a day at Calder and do not believe I have seen him ever win on anything but the much the best horse.