Thread: Picking tracks
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Old 02-27-2007, 03:02 AM
jvendetti22
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mugwump
Quick question from a newbie: I've read that it may be best to concentrate your handicapping efforts on one or two tracks. There is no local track here, so I have to pick one out-of-state. How do you determine which tracks you want to focus on? What kind of criteria do you use to choose one track over another?
Mug, I think that 'stick to one or two tracks' sentiment refers more to focusing on one or two tracks when handicapping so you don't end up playing the next race that is on your monitors. Many people tend to play the 'next available race' and since there are races going off at several tracks all day long, they tend to only spend a minute or two handicapping the race and rushing up to the windows. That style of handicapping can put a dent in your wallet real quick.

Just as an example, I sometimes go to the track with a buddy of mine who excels at cards (I HATE playing cards). While I am settling in reading my form and handicapping a race, my buddy blindly rushes up to the window to make a bet at whatever track is about to go off - then plays the next race, and the next, and the next. He sometimes is down $100 before I've finished handicapping one race and placed my wager. He needs that 'quick play' fix to feed his gambling jones that he is used to when playing cards. We generally split 'my bets' (he knows I'm a decent handicapper, so he wants part of my action), but there hasn't been a single time when he has won more than me at the end of the day. I can have a great day, and he ends up even or ahead just a little. Horse racing should be a slower paced sort of gambling adventure. Take it slow. Don't be in a rush.

Don't just blindly rush to play whatever race is about to go off is the main point. Study a little, make a decision and place your wager.

My advice for any noob would go something like this:

Your first goal should be to learn how to read the Daily Racing Form, and understand all the information that is presented. That is your Bible, and it takes a little time to learn to read it and identify the subtleties.

I'd also suggest a little supplemental reading when you aren't at the track, and to that end I'd suggest Andrew Beyer. Start with his book 'Picking Winners', then move onto 'Beyer on Speed', and finally 'The Winning Horseplayer'. Some people really hate the guy, but he's sharp as hell and I actually understood the little 'exercises' he presented in his books. If you don't see his example at first, re-read it.

Start with his first book, 'Picking Winners' and read the others as I mentioned them, as he builds on previous examples and reading them out of order is only going to make a difficult assignment more difficult.

Also, us handicappers are pretty much starved to share our knowledge with potential newcomers. Don't be afraid to ask some old fart sitting by his lonesome about his thoughts on a race. If you win a decent amount, buy him a beer or throw down a bet for him on a horse in the next race. DON'T just take his advice and pocket all your winnings. Take the opportunity to build a bit of commaradarie and show some gratitude and maybe you'll gain a short term tutor. (Beyer relates a story about someone he once helped cash large and got 'stiffed' afterwards in one of his books).

For a noob, I'd also suggest playing the larger tracks - the So Cal circuit, the Kentucky circuit, the Florida circuit, the NY circuit. Texas also has some decent tracks to play (Sam Houston and Lone Star). Most of those states have a track I'd stay away from. I don't like playing Fairplex in So Cal, Turfway and KY Downs might require a little more understanding of lesser known jocks and trainers in Kentucky (although I actually love playing those two tracks), Aqueduct in NY is $#!%hole I avoid. Calder in FLA is maybe a pass for me most days. Play the larger circuits like Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Del Mar in So Cal. Belmont or Saratoga in NY, Churchill or Keeneland in KY. Gulfstream is the premeire FLA track (usually only one major meet is going in any state).

Playing the major meets will give you a basic familiarity with the top jocks, trainers, and even owners that will allow you to follow the bigger days of racing a little more knowledgeably than focusing on smaller tracks, and the friends that tag along on Derby day or Breeders Cup will be impressed with the knowledge you bring.

If that is a little more work than you are looking for, a few basic tips I'd give is bet to win, or play some cheap exotic bets like an exacta, daily double, trifecta or PK3. I really don't like place or show betting in most circumstances. The times I've hit on a decent 'across the board' (placing a win place and show bet on a horse) I'd have been much better off putting it all on that horse to win.

Also, I generally try to beat the favorite. I might take a shot with the favorite if I can get 2-1 odds or better, but to a complete novice going to the track on a lark I'd say focus on horses at about 4-1 to 10-1. Those horses will generally at least stand a decent chance of winning - as opposed to the 20-1 types that are usually longshots for a reason.

Really though, any track and any race has the potential to pay nicely, so the ultimate goal of winning can be achieved anywhere, anytime. Personally I think racing is a 'top-down' sort of learning curve. Learn on the big tracks to establish a baseline of knowledge, and then apply that knowledge at the smaller tracks when you are a little more savvy as a player.

One last note, if you are going after the 'big score' the 10 cent superfecta is available at many tracks, and it is your best friend. It can be played relatively cheaply, and there is a significant IRS advantage to playing it. In short, a $2 base SFC wager will be an IRS ticket with a payout of $602 or more (meaning you have to pay taxes on it). A $1 SFC wager will be an IRS ticket if it pays $601 or more. A 10 cent SFC bet will be an IRS ticket at $600.10 - but if you play that 10 cent ticket 10 times, you could conceivably cash up to $6001 without paying the tax man.

Beating the tax man is a lesson for another day though, and the SFC is a tough wager to cash on - so learn the basics first (although playing a small 10 cent ticket once in a while might pay off nicely, so don't be afraid to give it a go once you understand the basics).

Last edited by Groundhog : 02-27-2007 at 03:31 AM.
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